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Volume 14, Issue 1 (Spring--In Press 2024)
Disaster Prev. Manag. Know. 2024, 14(1): 4-4 |
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Kouranifar A, Ahmadvand A M, Samadi-Foroushani M. Policy Analysis of Man-Made Fire Crisis Management in North Zagros Forests base on System Dynamics (SD) Approach. Disaster Prev. Manag. Know. 2024; 14 (1) :4-4
URL: http://dpmk.ir/article-1-644-en.html
URL: http://dpmk.ir/article-1-644-en.html
1- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Eyvanekey University, Eyvanekey, Iran.
Abstract: (204 Views)
Objective: The growing concern about climate change has increased awareness about the essential role of forest ecosystems. Normally, 36% of the world's forests suffer from forest fires. Fire affects the functioning of the ecosystem and the forest and causes soil erosion and changes in the carbon cycle on the climate, vegetation and lands. This study aims to scrutinize and analyze the management policies addressing the crisis of forest fires in the Zagros region, with a specific emphasis on discerning the contributory factors of anthropogenic forest fires, encompassing both deliberate and accidental origins.
Method: For this purpose, first, the system dynamic model of the forest fire management was designed with the participation of the natural resources policy makers of Lorestan province and the fire data of North Zagros forests in VENSIM DSS. This was done in collaboration with the policy makers responsible for the natural resources in Lorestan province. Following the validation, the model was simulated over a twenty-year horizon. Based on the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis results, forest fire crisis management policies were delineated, focusing on three core strategies: 1-The prevention of fire crises in the forests and pastures of North Zagros. 2- The command and management of fire incidents in the forests and pastures of Zagros. 3-The reconstruction following fire crises in the forests and pastures of North Zagros. Finally, by implementing each strategy's policies within the model separately, the outcomes were comparatively analyzed.
Findings: Based on the results of the model simulation, selected combined policies were presented. These include 1- Providing forest protection equipment. 2-Proportioning the number of rangers to the density of forests. 3- Specialized training for emergency and protective forces. 4-Raising public awareness about the consequences of forest destruction through local and national media. 5-Supporting civic organizations and training volunteer local forces to protect forests and pastures. 6- Development of incident information systems. 7- Developing a decision-support system based on knowledge management of forest fires. 8-Developing an incident command system and organizing inter-organizational coordination during incidents. 9- Investigating and analyzing the root causes of each forest and pasture fire incident in North Zagros.
Conclusion: The proposed model represents a practical application of system dynamics in forest and pasture fire scenarios for forest fire crisis management policymaking. Its effectiveness has been demonstrated using the data of natural resources from the North Zagros forests in Lorestan province.
Method: For this purpose, first, the system dynamic model of the forest fire management was designed with the participation of the natural resources policy makers of Lorestan province and the fire data of North Zagros forests in VENSIM DSS. This was done in collaboration with the policy makers responsible for the natural resources in Lorestan province. Following the validation, the model was simulated over a twenty-year horizon. Based on the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis results, forest fire crisis management policies were delineated, focusing on three core strategies: 1-The prevention of fire crises in the forests and pastures of North Zagros. 2- The command and management of fire incidents in the forests and pastures of Zagros. 3-The reconstruction following fire crises in the forests and pastures of North Zagros. Finally, by implementing each strategy's policies within the model separately, the outcomes were comparatively analyzed.
Findings: Based on the results of the model simulation, selected combined policies were presented. These include 1- Providing forest protection equipment. 2-Proportioning the number of rangers to the density of forests. 3- Specialized training for emergency and protective forces. 4-Raising public awareness about the consequences of forest destruction through local and national media. 5-Supporting civic organizations and training volunteer local forces to protect forests and pastures. 6- Development of incident information systems. 7- Developing a decision-support system based on knowledge management of forest fires. 8-Developing an incident command system and organizing inter-organizational coordination during incidents. 9- Investigating and analyzing the root causes of each forest and pasture fire incident in North Zagros.
Conclusion: The proposed model represents a practical application of system dynamics in forest and pasture fire scenarios for forest fire crisis management policymaking. Its effectiveness has been demonstrated using the data of natural resources from the North Zagros forests in Lorestan province.
Keywords: Forest fire, Crisis management, Man-made crisis, Forest and pasture protection policies, System dynamics modeling
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2023/12/12 | Accepted: 2024/01/21 | ePublished: 2024/06/25
Received: 2023/12/12 | Accepted: 2024/01/21 | ePublished: 2024/06/25
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